Eleventh Revolution
September 15, 2004
 
More on Polling

Everyone says polling--particularly given how highly divided the electorate appears to be--is mostly unreliable this year. But instead of looking at different polling models, like Zogby's got going on with the interactive polling, they just parrot back the findings of any poll that comes down the pike, never mind the methodology. But let's assume that the polls aren't actually reflecting voter sentiment (they've been off alarmingly in the past two elections). Why isn't anyone looking at Zogby? According to that polling, Kerry's winning going away, carrying every state Gore carried, plus four of eight that Bush carried. Bush, by comparison, isn't taking a single Kerry state.

We have good reason to believe three things about this election:

1. people mostly gave Bush a pass in 2000;

2. far more people who have switched allegiance this time are moving from Bush to Kerry than Dem to Bush;

3. that more people will vote, a fact that has always benefited the Democrat.Given that, doesn't it make sense that Zogby's onto something?

Zogby numbers:

State (Voted in 2000) [Leading on 9/7] Margin

Arkansas (BUSH) [BUSH] 1.7
Florida (BUSH) [KERRY] 0.3
Iowa (GORE) [KERRY] 3.7
Michigan (GORE) [KERRY] 6.6
Minnesota (GORE) [KERRY] 6.8
Missouri (BUSH) [KERRY] 0.4
Nevada (BUSH) [KERRY] 0.6
New Hampshire (BUSH) [KERRY] 4.7
New Mexico (GORE) [KERRY] 9.7
Ohio (BUSH) [BUSH] 10.9
Oregon (GORE) [KERRY] 9.7
Pennsylvania (GORE) [KERRY] 2.8
Tennessee (BUSH) [BUSH] 9.6
Washington (GORE) [KERRY] 8.5
West Virginia (BUSH) [BUSH] 9.0
Wisconsin (GORE) [KERRY] 2.4



Comments:
The Zogby numbers appear to be taken from polling during the convention. Slate's polling numbers today certainly show the Bush "bounce" from after the convention. The page is actually not loading right now for some reason, but it was showing 10%+ lead in Iowa and some other states. I'm not worried, as I was happily reminded on Digbys blog (I think it was there) about Kerry trailing right before his primary victories and how much can change in a short amount of time, but Kerry has to do his thing and do it well because as soon as those numbers evitably fall down to earth for Bush, Rove and Co. will get ugly, real ugly.

I like the theme of this blog. I feel very much akin to the founding fathers in resisting the nonsense that's going on in the White House (and I'm not even a Democrat), I just never knew which Revolution we were up to... :)
 
Thehim,

Thanks for stopping by, and particularly for the comment. I intend to continue to develop the theme to try to add something to the blogosphere (hard task). My sense on the polls is that we're all in the dark. With the 'net now, however, we'll all be able to go back and check the numbers and see which pollsters got it right.
 
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